Doing the Right Thing: Obama's Challenges

I feel rather satisfied by Obama's first days in office. We've seen a lot of symbolic executive orders, so the overall trend is positive. The promises of the campaign are being realized quite quickly. Tomorrow, he will announce a plan to accept the stringent emission standards that California and 13 other states tried to enforce a couple years ago, before being overruled by the Bush EPA. In general, it appears that climate change is a high priority, based on the environmental components of the stimulus plan, Obama's choice of Energy Secretary, and comments by White House aids. To know whether Obama will be a moderate president or a more change-minded one, we have to look at several key issues. Will he make the tough choices?

The real tests will be:

Measures to deal with the economic meltdown

• Will he sign a stimulus that resembles the $825 million one proposed in the House? And will he make additions to it, over the next eight months, as will probably be necessary?
• Will he nationalize the banks, as is needed? A continuation of half measures like capital-injections (with no government control) and bad bank asset purchases will merely waste money and perpetuate the crisis.
  
• Will he and his team devise a solution to the housing problem, including a change in bankruptcy laws, the purchase of houses by GSEs, and loan principal modification?
• Will he and his regulators institute tough new controls on derivatives, hedge funds, and the rest of shadow banking industry?

Foreign policy

• Will he negotiate with the Taliban? No stability in Afghanistan is possible without this.
• Will he negotiate with Iran? They can be used to stabilize Iraq and Syria, while neutralizing Hezbollah.
• Will he negotiate with Syria regarding Lebanon, Iraq, and Israel?
• Will he chastise Israel for blockading Gaza and responding to minor attacks with disproportionate force? This is essential to winning good will in the Arab world.
• Will he bring Hamas into the negotiation process? This is essential to peace.
• Will he get Israel and the Palestinians at the peace table by the end of the year?
• Will he improve relations with Russia, seeing them as a potential partner on a host of important issues?
• Will he focus on Africa? (A war-crime-committing leader in Sudan; a long-time tyrant in Zimbabwe, and fractured control in the Congo.)

The War on Drugs

• Will he make some effort to change the failed policy of the last thirty years?
• Will he push for changes in crack cocaine sentences, as promised?
• Will he push for increased use of treatment over prison sentences?

Healthcare

• Will he introduce a comprehensive universal health care plan by the summer?
• Will it include an adult mandate? This was absent from his campaign plan.
• Will it effectively ensure that all American can pay for health care by use of subsidies, expanded Medicaid, a lowering the Medicare eligibility age, and institution of a government health plan choice?
• Will he get all of this passed by August 2010?
  

Labor

• Will he sign the Employee Free Choice Act? This will eliminate some of the major flaws in the Taft-Hartley Act of 1947 and increase unionization by up to 50%.
• Will he reject any trade treaties with countries that violate human rights?
• Will he renegotiate trade relations with China and India?
• Will he pass the bill guaranteeing paid sick leave for employees?

Supreme Court

• Who will he appoint a strongly liberal replacement when Souter retires from the Court this summer?* This will be the first nomination by a Democratic president in 15 years and only the third in the last forty.
  

*If Souter wanted a moderate to liberal successor, then the time to do it would be this summer. Next year would be okay but not great. In 2011, it would depend on the make-up of the new Senate. As for 2012, a re-election year is the worse time to be nominated; almost 50% of nominees over the last century have been rejected when nominated at such a time. He is not going to wait until 2013, because Souter is sick of being on the Court. He openly admits that he loathes Washington.

If the answer to most of the above questions are yes, then we will be looking at an excellent presidency.