Did I Write the Stimulus Plan?

No, I assure you. But it does seem like I did. There are some rather incredible similarities. My mouth dropped open when I read the numbers.

My ideal stimulus plan vs. today's House Appropriations committee stimulus plan:

(e) = red
Appropriations = black

COMPARISON

Total: $950 billion = $725 government spending + $225 tax cuts
Total: $825 billion = $550 government spending + $275 tax cuts


$70 to close all state budget gaps and prevent the curtailing of services / employment

• $79 billion in state fiscal relief to prevent cutbacks to key services, including $39 billion to local school districts and public colleges and universities distributed through existing state and federal formulas, $15 billion to states as bonus grants as a reward for meeting key performance measures, and $25 billion to states for other high priority needs such as public safety and other critical services, which may include education.

$150 for infrastructure projects

• $32 billion to transform the nation's energy transmission, distribution, and production systems by allowing for a smarter and better grid and focusing investment in renewable technology.

• $30 billion for highway construction

• $31 billion to modernize federal and other public infrastructure with investments that lead to long term energy cost savings

• $10 billion for science facilities, research, and instrumentation. (should be higher)

$50 billion in green technology jobs

• overlaps with above, see "modernize federal", "transform the nation's energy", and "science facilities"

$50 billion to increase federal matching of state Medicaid

• $87 billion for a temporary increase in the Medicaid matching rate.

$70 in subsidies to begin universal healthcare, including Cobra and Medicaid expansion and the beginning of a federal health plan

• $39 billion to support those who lose their jobs by helping them to pay the cost of keeping their employer provided healthcare under COBRA and providing short-term options to be covered by Medicaid.

$5 billion for rural broadband and general expansion of wi-fi / high-speed internet

• $6 billion to expand broadband internet access so businesses in rural and other under-served areas can link up to the global economy.

$15 for making buildings more green

• $6 billion to weatherize modest-income homes (also see "modernize federal" under infrastructure and "to repair public housing" under food stamps / housing)
  

$50 billion for expanded unemployment benefits, including for part-time employees

• $43 billion for increased unemployment benefits and job training.

$35 billion to increase food stamps / welfare and to provide additional public housing

• $20 billion to increase the food stamp benefit by over 13% in order to help defray rising food costs.

• $16 billion to repair public housing and make key energy efficiency retrofits.

$15 for environment preservation and conservation

• $19 billion for clean water, flood control, and environmental restoration investments;

$40 billion for new teacher and improved school infrastructure

• $41 billion to local school districts through Title I ($13 billion), IDEA ($13 billion), a new School Modernization and Repair Program ($14 billion), and the Education Technology program ($1 billion).

$20 billion in Pell Grant and Federal Loan Assistance increases

• $15.6 billion to increase the Pell grant by $500.

$15 billion for Amtrak and rail transit modernization

• $10 billion for transit and rail to reduce traffic congestion and gas consumption. (should be higher)
  

· $6 billion for higher education modernization.

$25 billion to modernize healthcare, by making record electronic, eliminating inefficiency, and increasing preventive care

• $20 billion for health information technology to prevent medical mistakes, provide better care to patients and introduce cost-saving efficiencies.

• $4.1 billion to provide for preventative care and to evaluate the most effective healthcare treatments.

$225 billion in tax cuts, mainly to individuals in the form of reduced payroll withholding

• $275 billion in tax cuts
  

ITEMS ONLY IN MY PLAN

$5 billion for electronic preservation of old government documents for online research

$20 billion for FAA / Air Traffic Control modernization

$90 billion for government employment modeled on WPA

ITEMS ONLY IN GOVT/APPROPRIATIONS PROPOSAL

• $4 billion for state and local law enforcement funding. (a good move to shore up Republican votes and needed too)
• about $30 billion (only $30 billion!) unaccounted for
  

FINAL COMMENTS

By my standards, this is an excellent (though not perfect) stimulus package. The main weaknesses are that too little is spent on health care (more should be spent on subsidies to lower the number of uninsured), infrastructure (especially public transit; I want my L.A. subway), and direct government employment (my WPA proposal).

My judgment is that health care is not addressed in full in this plan, because it will be dealt with later, as Tom Daschle comes up with a plan to institute universal coverage. I hope we will see a role-out of a government plan with subsidies, which will cost at least another $75-150b. (I have to say, however, the extensions in COBRA and Medicaid will make a big difference and probably give health insurance to 4-8 million people, which is a decent start.) I would have preferred, though, to front load more of this cost and shove it into this stimulus plan, which is more likely to pass.

When it comes to infrastructure, much of the spending is related to creating green industry and green jobs. I think too little is spent on public transportation infrastructure. Although I had a separate figure for Amtrak and special public transit projects (see bullet trains), I hoped that they would allot $20-40 billion just for public transit. No such luck -- and this explains some of the difference in my numbers and theirs. I think that to fix the US infrastructure on the whole (roads, bridges, buildings, power grid, ports, etc), it will cost at least $100 billion, and this is in addition to any "green" fixes, which would entail additional costs. So, overall I projected $200 billion total between infrastructure and "green", while the govt. plan only allows a little over $100.

I think the government should directly employ people like they did in the 1930s with the WPA. Many Democrats support this idea, but its inclusion would surely lead to a filibuster by Republicans in the Senate. No WPA until the Democrats get at least 63 votes in the Senate.

Overall, it's a good stimulus if it's holds up in House-Senate conference. I wish they would add a little more to infrastructure and health care spending, but I think it is a good start in terms of allocation. The only worry is that it be too little (yes, $850 billion can be too little), too late. Let's hope not.