Decided at the Convention: It Could Happen

If current trends continue, it seems to me that both the Democratic and Republican nominees will not be selected until or right before their respective conventions. That would mark the first time that this has happened in a while.

[In 1980, Ted Kennedy could have beat Carter at the convention if all the superdelegates went to him. Of course, against a sitting president, this was impossible and everyone knew it. I don't think that counts. Eight years earlier, Herbert Humphrey tried to challenge George McGovern's delegates in California. A final decision wasn't delivered until shortly before the convention, but most expected McGovern to get them all, as California law at the time stated. A similar scenario occurred in 1968, thanks to Kennedy's death. If we dismiss all of these, then 1956 was the last time. In that year, Adlai Stevenson was re-drafted to be the nominee over vote-winner Estes Kefauver.]

So, yes, a brokered convention (or two) might lie in the near future. For the Republicans, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney have all won initial contests. McCain is disliked by evangelicals and traditional, wealthy conservatives, but has good numbers among moderates/independents and pro-military types. The majority of Huckabee's following is among evangelicals/fundamentalists, the poorest Republicans, and Southerners. Romney, meanwhile, is the establishment Republican candidate of the rich, fiscal conservative and business types. He also a good following among Northerners and Westerners, especially Mormons. Basically, these three candidates have split the Republican party in thirds. On top of all of this division, Ron Paul is taking away about 5-10% of the party's strong libertarian faction. (I am fairly confident that he will run as the Libertarian candidate and win about 4% of the vote)

The two other significant Republican candidates are Fred Thompson and Rudy Guiliani. If Thompson does not win or come within three percentage points of winning South Carolina next week, he will drop out of the race. He is covering much of the same ground as Romney and his Southern support is being taken away by Huckabee. I think he's gone. Guiliani, meanwhile, could win Florida, though I don't think he will. He may come close, though, and stay in the race. If so, no single Republican will get more than 35% of the delegates on Super Tuesday. According to my math, if at least three Republicans stay in the race, then again no one will finish with enough delegates to be automatically selected the nominee. I'd even say that there is now a 30% chance that the Republicans could try to draft someone, with possibilities such as Newt Gingrich, Haley Barbour, or some other Republican governor.

On the Democratic side, Clinton looks like she will get the most delegates but not enough to clinch the nomination. Edwards' delegates or the super-delegates may be the deciding ones at the Democratic convention. (I am estimating the following delegate percentage breakdown, based solely on contests: Clinton - 46%, Obama - 38%, Edwards - 16%) Under such circumstances, the superdelegates (who are not chosen by primary voters or by caucuses, but who are mainly elected officials within the Democratic party) may decide to just crown Hillary the winner. Or they could split, leaving no clear winner. Especially if Obama's support remains strong, I think the latter will happen.

Whatever the case, though, it does appear that Clinton will ultimately end up with the nomination, though this could happen as late as the convention. What could prevent this inevitability? Obama would have to win Nevada by more than 5% and South Carolina by more than 10%. (I would not bet on either of these.) Clinton would also have to make some kind of obvious mistake over the next three weeks. Ultimately, Obama will probably end up winning white men, black men and women, those under 30, moderates, and the most left-leaning. Clinton will win white women (who vote in the heaviest numbers), those over 45, stalwart Democrats, and (significantly) Latinos. I would also say now (with about 70% certainly) that both the eventual president and v.p. nominees with be chosen from these three candidates.

Addendum: Shortly after writing this, I noticed this piece in the Washington Post.